Barack Obama's Keynesian Mistake

by Ike Brannon and Chris Edwards Ike Brannon is former Senior Advisor at the U.S. Treasury. Chris Edwards is Director of Tax Policy Studies at the Cato Institute. Added to cato.org on January 29, 2009, This article appeared in the National Post on January 29, 2009 Federal policymakers are moving ahead with a huge $800-billion stimulus plan to return the U.S. economy to growth. Will it work? Decades of macroeconomic research suggest that it won't. Indeed, the revival of old-fashioned Keynesianism to fight the recession seems to stem more from political expediency than modern economic theory or historical experience. The idea of using fiscal policy to boost the economy during a downturn was championed by John Maynard Keynes in the 1930s. Keynes argued that market economies can get stuck in a deep rut and that only large infusions of government stimulus can revive growth. He posited that high unemployment in the Great Depression was due to "sticky wages" and other market problems that prevented the return of full-employment equilibrium. Interestingly, Keynes did not offer any evidence that sticky wages were a serious problem, and later research indicated that wages actually fell substantially during the 1930s. Instead, one needs to look at a range of government interventions to explain why the downturn lasted so long. Barack Obama's Keynesian Mistake